SA Satellite Comms Report 2026: Market Forecasts & Analysis | BMIT
Space returns as the next frontier
BMIT’s latest SA Satellite Comms Report 2026 provides an in-depth analysis which show the extent to which satellites are transforming enterprise, consumer, government, and wholesale markets.
Chris Geerdts, the Managing Director of BMIT (who was also technical advisor for the DBSA’s recent Digital Infrastructure Investment Study) says BMIT’s Satellite Report now analyses the extent to which satellite is addressing South Africa’s twin challenges of coverage and affordability. He explains that due to the uncertainty around regulations and timing of competitor launches, BMIT has developed both ‘high road’ and ‘low road’ market scenarios.
Whilst Starlink has seen immense global uptake, it continues to face regulatory hurdles regarding its official licensing in South Africa, which will eventually be legitimised, although not in the short term. The significant “grey market” presence which has grown in the meantime, underscores the pent up demand for such services.
Meanwhile Amazon’s low-earth orbit (LEO) constellation, Amazon Leo, is expected to compete aggressively with Starlink on price and performance in both the business and consumer spaces, currently aiming for selective wholesale services to mobile operators before December and full commercial launch by early 2027, building partnerships with local licensees to expedite its entry into South Africa.
The Chinese constellation branded Spacesail has over 500 satellites deployed and its first publicly announced project is aimed at rural connectivity in Brazil. BMIT expects that China will include South Africa as a priority market, but the timing is not yet clear.
Eutelsat, however, is well established locally, offering business services via its high-throughput geostationary (HTS GEO) satellite and its LEO constellation, OneWeb. In partnership with BCX, Q-KON, and Paratus, OneWeb is carving out a strong position in the enterprise market by allowing Local Service Providers (LSPs) to provide relevant local data services, including the tailoring of data pooling cross multiple corporate sites, which is a crucial advantage for affordability.
Consequently, BMIT expects the business-to-business (B2B) market to see substantial growth as supply-side constraints diminish. Depending on the forecast scenario, active B2B satellite terminals could almost treble from 27,500 or so in 2024 to over 75,000 by 2029, driven by retail, banking (where satellite can provide a critical primary or secondary link for SD-WAN networks, Point-of-Sale systems, and bank ATMs) and by remote industries (such as mining, exploration, corporate agriculture, and remote eco-tourism lodges) – all of which rely heavily on satellite connectivity.
Mobile operators are increasingly using both LEO and HTS GEO satellites to connect deep-rural cell towers where microwave or fibre backhaul is economically unfeasible. This segment alone represents a potential uptake of 10,000 sites in SA.
BMIT’s spatial analysis reveals that while fibre and 5G dominate urban and peri-urban zones, a vast consumer market remains out of reach. There are an estimated 12 million households in remote areas requiring general high-speed internet. Of these, approximately 2.4 million homes represent a high-potential market for satellite connectivity, provided the price-to-performance ratio aligns with consumer budgets.
For consumers, BMIT considers Direct-to-Device (D2D) to be a game-changing technology. By allowing unmodified standard smartphones to connect directly to LEO satellites, it promises to eliminate mobile “dead zones” entirely. South African mobile operators are already testing and forming partnerships with operators such as AST SpaceMobile, following the success of Starlink/T-Mobile collaborations globally.
BMIT also regards Satellite IoT as an incipient but highly lucrative market, for use cases such as asset tracking, precision agriculture, and environmental monitoring. BMIT models indicate that the B2B Satellite-based IoT market in South Africa could reach R1.6 billion by 2030.
“Ultimately, the satellite landscape is no longer just a backup option for remote areas; it is becoming a core pillar of South Africa’s broader digital ecosystem,” concludes Geerdts. “As LEO constellations mature, satellite technology will play a pivotal role in closing the digital divide while unlocking billions in value for operators and enterprises”