South African Broadband Report 2024

South African Broadband Report 2024

 

Market focus
South African retail broadband market (B2B and B2C) across all access media.

Key research components
Market sizing, segmentation and forecasts, key product and pricing trends, competitive dynamics and technology and infrastructure availability. High level review of global market as context for local trends.

Methodology
Extensive secondary research and selected interviews with key industry players.
Primary research extracts from large-sample consumer survey.
Bottom-up and top-down analysis. Forecasting methods include exponential smoothing and cause and effect methodologies (scenario building).

Table of Contents

Introduction
  • Taxonomy of access technologies discussed in this report
International Trends
  • Overview
  • Remote work requirements
  • Africa versus other regions with respect to mobile technology adoption
  • Global trends with 5G deployment
  • Fixed-wireless access as a 5G service
  • Private mobile networks (PMR) growth
  • Trends in Wi-Fi Technology Adoption
  • TVWS reality versus expectation
  • LEO/MEO satellite deployment update and view on potential disruption
  • Satellite direct-to-mobile communications as a game changer
  • VHTS
Broadband Technology Advancements
  • Overview
  • Competing technologies reflecting relative cost/benefit dynamics
  • GPON and its upgrade paths
  • 5G’s status and primary use cases and trajectory to 5G Advanced and 6G (main features and mapping to 3GPP releases)
  • Wi-Fi technical developments
  • Very High Throughput Satellites (VHTS) and capacity
  • Decisions made at WRC-23 and their potential impact.
Local Market Trends
  • Overview
  • Main 5G players, status of coverage and expansion plans.
  • Rural vs Urban Coverage – Icasa
  • The interplay of 4G and 5G
  • Disparities in 5G coverage
  • Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) coverage and subscribers versus Fibre
  • BMIT’s spatial analysis on differences between areas
  • Update on the broadband connectivity challenge, ‘moving down the pyramid’
  • Vuma – Reported market strategy
  • Percentage of households with a monthly internet spend of under R500pm
  • Anticipated market disruption by LEO satellites
  • The evolving role of Wi-Fi across many sectors
  • WISPs overview and their technology options
Broadband Product and Pricing Trends
  • Overview
  • Residential Entry Price points in key affordability bands
  • Entry-level Fixed-LTE & 5G service price roundup
  • Home fibre services aimed at lower-affordability customers
  • Entry-level broadband services – geography-specific offerings
  • Lower cost fibre technology explained
  • FNOs targeting lower-income urban households
  • Entry-level FTTH examples – two key players
  • MTN’s wireless alternative
  • Disruptive trends: Business Broadband
  • B2B Fibre price trend
  • B2B Fibre roundup – recent prices and network availability
  • Aggregators across multiple FNO networks
Market Sizing and Forecast
  • Overview
  • Broadband connections forecast
  • Impact of Telkom’s network migration
  • Primary Home Internet Access Type
  • Residential Fibre and Fixed-LTE/5G Uptake vs Projected Feasibility and Potential Feasibility
  • Vumatel’s aggressive push (with Reach) and then drastically ‘hitting the pause button’.
  • New FTTH cohorts opening up
  • FTTH rollout dependency on business models in entry-level areas and related investor confidence.
  • Residential Fixed-mobile and Fixed-5G scenarios
  • ARPU trend
  • Revenue forecasts
  • Retail Fixed Wireless (Microwave) – B2B vs B2C
Competitive Analysis
  • Overview
  • Broadband Value Chain
  • Broadband Value Chain – Industry Concentration
  • B2B Fixed ISP (Overlay) Summary
  • Competitor Profiles
Annexure: Township fibre roundup
Annexure: Digital Lifestyle Survey 2022 (selected results)
  • Survey Methodology
  • Primary Home Internet Access Type
  • Primary Home Internet Access
  • Monthly Internet Spend
  • Monthly Internet Spend by household income
  • Home Internet Upgrade Intention

Deliverables and format

PDF PowerPoint format, and Excel workbook

Clients are also entitled to a one-hour online workshop.

Related research

  • SA Wholesale Telecoms Report
  • GeoBroadband programme: a GIS tracker of broadband availability by geographic location across South Africa
  • SA ICT Vertical Industries Market Sizing and Forecast Report
  • South African SD-WAN Report

Further information

For further information and details on how to subscribe to our research services, please contact Anita Mathews at 011 540 8000 | 082 466 2317 | anita@bmit.africa

For more information on BMIT, our research and consulting services, visit our website www.bmit.africa