South African Broadband Report 2025

 

Market focus

South African retail broadband market (B2B and B2C) across all access media.

Key research components

  • Market sizing, segmentation and forecasts, key product and pricing trends, competitive dynamics and technology and infrastructure availability. High level review of global market as context for local trends.

Methodology

  • Extensive secondary research and selected interviews with key industry players.
  • Primary research extracts from large-sample consumer survey.
  • Bottom-up and top-down analysis.  Forecasting methods include exponential smoothing and cause and effect methodologies (scenario building).

Table of Contents

Introduction

Taxonomy of access technologies discussed in this report

International Trends

  • Overall Trends
  • Distributed work models 
  • Emerging basic requirements from distributed work models (continued)
  • Fibre in the fixed broadband market
  • Africa fixed broadband penetration
  • Global 5G deployment trends
  • 5G subscriptions in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) 
  • The Usage Gap in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA
  • SSA in mobile data consumption per subscriber
  • Technology Mix for sub-Saharan Africa
  • Fixed-wireless access 5G services
  • Private mobile networks (PMRs) 
  • Wi-Fi 6 
  • TVWS 
  • LEO/MEO satellite deployments 
  • Satellite direct-to-device (D2D) mobile communications 
  • VHTS Systems and ViaSat’s 1Tbps Satellites

Technology Advancements

  • Overview
  • Competing technologies 
  • GPON 
  • Operators and increased bandwidth demand
  • 5G ITU IMT-2020 requirements and specifications
  • 5G deployments 
  • 3GPP
  • 5G-Advanced specifications 
  • IMT-2030 specifications
  • IMT-2030 specifications ‘palette diagram’
  • Wi-Fi technical developments 
  • Each generation of Wi-Fi represents a step-change in performance
  • Very High Throughput Satellites (VHTS) 
  • WRC-23 will enable the advance of certain technologies

Local Market Trends

  • Overview
  • 4G and 5G Coverage 
  • Rural vs Urban Mobile Coverage – ICASA
  • Further expansion of 5G 
  • Underserved Markets – status check
  • Industry transformation over a decade 
  • Vuma – Stratified market strategy
  • Comsol 5G FWA (business) 
  • Households primary monthly internet spend of under R500pm
  • Anticipated market disruption by LEOs 
  • The role of Wi-Fi is evolving across many sectors
  • WISPs and the digital divide
  • WISPs technology options to meet increasing demand
  • SA Government developments of relevance to broadband
  • TVWS 

Product and Pricing Trends

  • Overview
  • Broadband Product and Pricing Trends
  • Residential Entry Price points across various access media  
  • Entry-level Fixed-LTE/5G service price roundup – 100GB FUP
  • Uncapped Fixed-5G 
  • Emerging uncapped (or ‘quasi-uncapped’) home fibre services 
  • Summary of entry-level broadband services – geography specific offerings
    (other than emerging ‘Township’ offerings)
  • Lower cost fibre technology explained 
  • FNOs are targeting lower-income urban households
  • Township fibre comparison 
  • Time-based uncapped home fibre service example 
  • ‘Next-generation’ Taran ngFWA Fixed Wireless & MTN / Supersonic ‘Air Fibre’
    – a bit of history
  • Disruptive trends: Business Broadband
  • B2B Fibre price trend (1) – historical trend 
  • B2B Fibre price trend (2) – historical trend
  • B2B Fibre price trend (3) – historical trend: 
  • B2B Fibre roundup (1) – recent prices and network availability
  • B2B Fibre roundup (2) – recent prices and network availability

Market Sizing and Forecast

  • Overview
  • The base of broadband connections overall 
  • Telkom’s migration away from copper access 
  • Primary Home Internet Access Type – Earlier Consumer Survey Findings
  • Primary Home Internet Access Type – Recent Historical Trend
  • Residential Fibre and Fixed-LTE/5G Uptake vs Projected Feasibility
    and Potential Feasibility
  • Vumatel’s Reach
  • New FTTH cohorts 
  • FTTH rollouts  
  • BMIT’s middle forecast scenario for 5G 
  • Residential Fixed-mobile and Fixed-5G scenarios
  • Blended ARPUs
  • Residential broadband connections overall 
  • BMIT’s forecast of business connections 
  • Retail Fixed Wireless (Microwave) – B2B vs B2

Competitive Analysis

  • Overview
  • Broadband Value Chain
  • Broadband Value Chain – Industry Concentration
  • B2B Fixed ISP (Overlay) Summary
  • Competitor Profiles
Annexure: Township fibre roundup
Annexure: Urban/Rural Coverage Disparity Analysis (2023) 
Annexe: Digital Lifestyle Survey, 2022 Selected Results

Deliverables and format

  • PDF PowerPoint format, and Excel workbook
  • Clients are also entitled to a one-hour online workshop.

Related research

  • SA Wholesale Telecoms report
  • SA MVNO report
  • ICT Vertical Markets report
  • SA Satellite Report (New)
  • SA SD-WAN Report
  • GeoBroadband programme: a GIS tracker of broadband availability by geographic location across South Africa

Further information

For further information and details on how to subscribe to our research services, please contact Anita Mathews at 011 540 8000 | 082 466 2317 | anita@bmit.africa

For more information on BMIT, our research and consulting services, visit our website www.bmit.africa