BMIT forecasts South African broadband market to reach R83 billion by 2029, driven by FTTH and 5G FWA growth.

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa

ICT analyst firm BMIT’s latest SA Broadband Report quantifies the ongoing, massive growth in the local broadband access sector, predicting the total market will hit R82.8 billion in revenue by 2029.

According to BMIT’s updated research, the base of broadband connections overall is forecast to grow by 3.7 million active subscriptions between 2024 and 2029, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.6%.

This growth is heavily driven by the residential market, where Fibre-to-the-Home (FTTH) and Fixed-Mobile (routers) both continue to see aggressive uptake.

Chris Geerdts, Managing Director of BMIT, notes that while FTTH rollouts experienced a slowdown between 2023 and 2024 following massive acceleration in previous years, they are expected to pick up again as operators move into lower-tier urban market cohorts. BMIT forecasts residential FTTH connections to grow at 12.8% CAGR.

However, the lion’s share of new subscriptions comes from fixed-mobile access, with 5G in particular rapidly cementing its place in the market. BMIT predicts that 5G will account for 67% of all residential fixed-mobile router connections by 2029, up from 35% in 2024, as operators like MTN, Vodacom, rain, and Telkom aggressively roll out 5G coverage and offer attractively priced, quasi-uncapped packages.

Geerdts concludes that the broadband access market therefore continues to offer opportunity in the mid-term, particularly for operators with a business model suited to deployment to lower-tier households.

About BMIT

BMI TechKnowledge (BMIT) is a leading South African technology market research and consulting firm, providing deep insights into the ICT sector.

Media Contact: Anita Mathews | Business Development Manager | anita@bmit.africa | 082 466 2317